KNOWING THE ELECTORAL PREFERENCE THROUGH POPULARITY ON FACEBOOK (CONOCIENDO LA PREFERENCIA ELECTORAL A TRAVÉS DE LA POPULARIDAD EN FACEBOOK)

Rafael Martínez Peláez, Diego Toto Jiménez, Noé A. Castro-Sánchez, Leobardo A. Ceja Bravo, Adalberto Iriarte Solís, Sandra A. Olivares Bautista

Resumen


Abstract

This study examines the possibility of identifying the political-electoral trend of a presidential election based on the popularity of candidates on Facebook. We collected data from Facebook accounts of the four candidates to Mexico’s Presidential in 2012, and we analyzed the data against the election result of July 1, 2012. We found a positive relationship between the number of friends and votes, corroborating previous research. Moreover, we introduced the number of times the Facebook like button was clicked by friends as a variable to measure the voting trends, finding that it has a stronger correlation with votes.

Keywords: elections, political-electoral trend, political participation, popularity, social network sites.


Resumen

Este estudio examina la posibilidad de identificar la tendencia político-electoral de una elección presidencial a partir de la popularidad de los candidatos en Facebook. Se recolectaron datos de las cuentas en Facebook de los cuatro candidatos a la Presidencial de México en 2012 y se analizaron contra los resultados electorales del primero de Julio del 2012. Se encontró una relación positiva entre el número de amigos y los votos conseguidos en la elección, corroborando investigaciones previas. Además, se introdujo la cantidad de veces que los amigos hicieron clic en el botón me gusta de Facebook como una variable para medir la tendencia electoral, obteniendo una mayor correlación con los votos.

Palabras Claves: elecciones, participación política, popularidad, sitio de redes sociales, tendencia político-electoral.



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